Christophe Fouquet, who assumed the role of CEO at Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML in 2024 after more than a decade with the company, expressed confidence in his firm’s dominant market position during an interview at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills this week. Speaking in relaxed tones even when the conversation turned to potential rivals, Fouquet underscored ASML’s commanding lead in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology—the critical machinery that produces the world’s most advanced computer chips. His remarks reflect a company that, despite mounting geopolitical pressures and export restrictions, continues to view its technological moat as insurmountable in the near to medium term.
ASML’s monopoly in EUV lithography represents one of the most consequential technology dominances in the modern global economy. The company controls approximately 90% of the market for machines that etch the finest circuit patterns onto silicon wafers, technology essential for producing processors used in artificial intelligence systems, smartphones, data centers, and defense applications. This position has emerged through decades of research investment, accumulated intellectual property, and the company’s headquarters in the Netherlands—a NATO member with alignment on semiconductor security alongside the United States and other democratic allies. The firm’s equipment sells for $150 million to $300 million per machine, creating enormous barriers to entry for potential competitors.
Fouquet’s confidence appears grounded in the steep technical and financial barriers facing any would-be competitor. Developing EUV lithography requires mastery across multiple physics disciplines, advanced optics, laser technology, and precision engineering at scales where tolerances measure in nanometers. The research and development costs run into billions of euros, demanding both financial reserves and access to specialized talent pools concentrated primarily in Europe, the United States, and Japan. Chinese chipmakers and equipment manufacturers, despite substantial state backing and aspirations to reduce dependence on Western technology, remain years behind in this critical domain, according to semiconductor industry analysts and intelligence assessments.
The geopolitical context surrounding ASML’s operations has intensified significantly since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and escalating United States-China technological competition. The Dutch government, under American pressure, has imposed export restrictions on ASML’s most advanced EUV systems to China since 2022, with restrictions tightened further in 2023. ASML reported that sales to China represented approximately 16% of its revenue before these restrictions took effect. Despite these constraints on its commercial reach, the company’s technological lead has only widened as Chinese competitors struggle to close the gap without access to ASML’s latest equipment. This dynamic creates a structural advantage unlikely to diminish without fundamental breakthroughs in competing technologies or massive coordinated investment from alternative supplier nations.
Industry observers and semiconductor executives acknowledge the durability of ASML’s position across different stakeholder groups. Chipmakers globally—including Samsung, Intel, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company—view ASML as an essential, irreplaceable partner for maintaining cutting-edge production capability. Governments in the United States, Europe, and Asia recognize the company’s strategic importance to their technological sovereignty and have granted it considerable latitude in capital investment and talent recruitment. Even Chinese officials, while publicly committing to indigenous alternatives, privately acknowledge the formidable technical challenges ahead. This convergence of market dominance, geopolitical alignment, and technological complexity creates conditions where displacement would require either a technological breakthrough outside ASML’s control or a fundamental reordering of global semiconductor supply chains.
The implications of ASML’s sustained monopoly extend far beyond the company itself. Control over EUV lithography equipment translates into influence over the pace at which the world’s computational capabilities advance, which AI systems can be developed, and which nations can maintain independent semiconductor sovereignty. The concentration of this capability in a single Dutch company beholden to NATO export controls means Western governments possess significant leverage over global chip production—leverage that has become central to their strategic competition with China. Conversely, this concentration also creates vulnerability: any disruption to ASML’s operations, whether from cyberattack, internal crisis, or geopolitical escalation, could disrupt global chip supplies across virtually all advanced technology sectors. Some analysts have begun cautioning governments to diversify their dependencies, though no practical alternatives currently exist at scale.
Looking ahead, the critical question is whether ASML’s technological supremacy will persist indefinitely or whether emerging challenges—from alternative lithography approaches to Chinese competitor progress—will gradually erode its position. The company’s confidence appears justified by current trajectories and technical fundamentals, yet technology history demonstrates that dominant positions can shift when paradigms change. The next five years will likely see intensified Chinese investment in competing approaches, potential breakthrough announcements from Samsung or Intel’s internal equipment divisions, and possibly new international consortiums aimed at reducing Western semiconductor equipment dependency. Fouquet’s relaxed demeanor about competition may prove prescient, or it may represent the characteristic overconfidence that sometimes precedes disruption. What remains certain is that ASML’s current dominance will shape global technological competition and geopolitical alignments for years to come.
